国内首个MW级分布式能源系统烟囱合理性分析

介绍了分布式能源系统的构成、运行特点及技术发展情况,研究了国内首个MW级分布式供能系统工程的烟囱高度和形式,预测和分析了项目大气污染物对环境的影响,证明了该项目烟囱选择的合理性,为下阶段国内分布式能源系统烟囱选型奠定技术基础。     

Modeling Postfire Response and Recovery using the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS)1

Abstract: This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC‐HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC‐HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions (I_a), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while I_a approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three‐year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire.     

振动试验数据管理系统概述

随着近些年振动试验技术的快速发展,对于振动试验数据的保存、管理和统计提出了更高的要求。鉴于此,附属于试验室信息管理系统的振动试验数据管理系统作为振动试验有效的管理工具,必然会成为提升试验室振动试验能力、规范试验技术的有效工具。     

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.     

黄浦江水系水质变化及原因分析

根据1986—2010年的水质监测数据,研究了黄浦江水系水质变化,并对影响水质的主要因素进行了探讨。结果表明,近25年的黄浦江水系水质变化基本可分为3个阶段:1986—1996年,上海市的畜牧业高速发展,生活污水量逐年上升,工业废水量较大而处理率低,水环境压力加大,水质持续恶化;1996—2002年,上游来水水质、生活污水量和畜牧业污染量均基本稳定,为水质改善创造必要条件,随着工业废水量的下降及废水处理能力的加强,水质持续改善;2002—2010年,上游来水水质在2002—2004年明显恶化,生活污水量再次进入快速上升期,加大了水环境改善的难度,水质改善趋势放缓并渐趋稳定。     

The impact of a standard enforcement safety belt law on fatalities and hospital charges in Ohio

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to analyze linked crash and hospital data to determine the effect that enactment of a standard enforcement safety belt law in Ohio would have on hospital charges and direct medical costs due to motor-vehicle crashes, focusing on the impact to the state's Medicaid system.

Method

The linkage and analysis was conducted as part of the Ohio Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) program. Current safety belt usage in Ohio stands at 82% with its secondary enforcement safety belt law.

Results

Assuming an increase in usage to 92% through standard enforcement, over $15.3 million in medical costs to Medicaid for injuries that occur in a single year could be prevented over a 10-year period. Cumulative savings could reach more than $91.2 million during the 10-year period. In addition, 161 fatalities could have been prevented in one year had all unbelted occupants who sustained a fatal injury instead chosen to wear their safety belt.

Summary and Impact on Industry

Clearly, substantial progress can be made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries, as well as medical costs associated with motor-vehicle crashes, by strengthening safety belt laws and increasing safety belt usage in Ohio.     

运用灰色GM（1,1）系统模型预测北京市污水排放量

北京市水资源开发利用已经超过了水资源承载能力范围,由此引发的水资源短缺问题日益严重.对污水的综合利用进行研究可以达到持续利用水资源的目的,解决水资源短缺问题.以北京市2005-2012年污水排放量资料为基础,运用灰色系统模型,对工业、生活污水排放量及总污水排放量进行了预测,分析北京市污水排放量走势及存在的问题,提出未来北京市污水综合利用的对策措施.     

支撑环境监测预警体系的计算机信息系统建设思路

环境监测预警体系只有依靠计算机信息系统才能发挥其作用,根据预警体系的特点、内容以及要实现的功能,论述了信息系统硬件建设和软件建设的基本要求、系统的组成和系统实现的方法。     

Pilot sample risk analysis for underground coal mine fires and explosions using MSHA citation data

After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state.     

试用“三论”探索我国安全生产宏观管理模式

本文试用系统论、控制论和信息论的观点探索我国安全生产宏管理模式。文中主要分析了生产安全系统的内涵;行业生产安全系统的内涵;以及生产安全系统的宏观控制的内涵。并指出了行业生产安全系统是生产安全系统的主体控制系统,劳动安全监察系统是生产安全系统的强化控制系统。